Necaxa W v Atlas W: analysis and our pick
Liga MX Femenil · Friday 6 November 01:00 · Estadio Victoria. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Necaxa W looking for a response
Necaxa W have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to Santos Laguna W and a 0–5 away defeat at Pachuca W. Atlas W have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–7 home defeat to Tigres UANL W and a 2–1 home win over Puebla W.
The head-to-head favours Atlas W
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Necaxa W, 0 draws, 5 for Atlas W, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Atlas W 3–2 Necaxa W (28 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 30%. Necaxa W score 0.2 and concede 4.2 a game, Atlas W 0.8 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 2.3 = 3.5 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Atlas W · 61%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 1–2.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Atlas W have the highest probability (61%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.