Independiente del Valle v Delfin SC: analysis and our pick

Independiente del Valle in good form

Independiente del Valle have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over LDU de Quito and a 3–0 away win at Delfin SC. Delfin SC have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Deportivo Cuenca and a 0–3 home defeat to Independiente del Valle.

The head-to-head favours Independiente del Valle

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Independiente del Valle, 2 draws, 0 for Delfin SC, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Delfin SC 0–3 Independiente del Valle (29 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. Independiente del Valle score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game, Delfin SC 2.0 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 0.9 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 75% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Independiente del Valle · 54%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 75%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Independiente del Valle have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Independiente del Valle — last game: Against LDU de Quito (2-0) they had 60% of the shots (18 to 12, on target 7-1) and 54% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 67′, 69′. Over the last 4 they averaged 54% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 20% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. Delfin SC — last game: Against Deportivo Cuenca (3-1) they had 65% of the shots (15 to 8, on target 4-1) and 61% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 1 on target. 🟥 Red card on 45′ for Deportivo Cuenca (Carlos Arboleda): the opponent played with ten for ~45 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 86% of the pressure → conceded on 3′. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 20′. 45′–60′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 55% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 63% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 64% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.