Hunters v Deren: analysis and our pick
Premier League · Friday 6 November 10:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Hunters looking for a response
Hunters have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–9 home defeat to Ulaanbaatar and a 1–7 home defeat to Central Stallions. Deren have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–3 away draw with Central Stallions and a 0–1 away defeat at Ulaanbaatar.
The head-to-head favours Deren
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Hunters, 1 draw, 4 for Deren, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Deren 2–0 Hunters (25 Oct 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 65%. Hunters score 2.6 and concede 4.0 a game, Deren 2.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 2.9 = 4.9 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 96% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Deren · 54%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 87%). Most likely score: 2–2.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 96%: the model expects 4.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Deren have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 87% from the same lambdas. 2–2 is the most likely score (6%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.