Hapoel Ironi Karmiel v Ironi Baka El Garbiya: analysis and our pick

Ironi Baka El Garbiya have a chance to respond

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Tzeirey Tamra and a 0–2 home defeat to Hapoel Azor. Ironi Baka El Garbiya have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Hapoel Migdal HaEmek and a 3–1 away win at Tzeirey Tamra.

The head-to-head favours Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

In the last 1 meetings: 1 win for Hapoel Ironi Karmiel, 0 draws, 0 for Ironi Baka El Garbiya, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1–2 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (28 Nov 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 55%. Hapoel Ironi Karmiel score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Ironi Baka El Garbiya — last game: Against Hapoel Nazareth Illit (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Ironi Baka El Garbiya). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.