Hamburger SV v Borussia Monchengladbach: analysis and our pick

Hamburger SV looking for a response

Hamburger SV have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt and a 1–3 home defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt. Borussia Monchengladbach have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with SC Paderborn 07 and a 2–0 home win over Karlsruher SC.

The head-to-head favours Hamburger SV

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Hamburger SV, 2 draws, 1 for Borussia Monchengladbach, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Hamburger SV 0–0 Borussia Monchengladbach (17 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 50%. Hamburger SV score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Borussia Monchengladbach 1.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.7 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Borussia Monchengladbach · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Borussia Monchengladbach have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Hamburger SV — last game: Away to Eintracht Frankfurt (1-3) they had 44% of the shots (12 to 15, on target 3-10) and 48% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 10 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 10′, scored on the break on 14′. 15′–30′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Borussia Monchengladbach — last game: Against SC Paderborn 07 (0-0) they had 46% of the shots (11 to 13, on target 4-4) and 42% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 89% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target. They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.