Gaziantep FK v Kasimpasa: analysis and our pick

Gaziantep FK looking for a response

Gaziantep FK have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Trabzonspor and a 4–0 away win at Etimesgut SK. Kasimpasa have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Besiktas and a 3–1 home win over Çorluspor 1947.

The head-to-head favours Gaziantep FK

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Gaziantep FK, 2 draws, 0 for Kasimpasa, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Gaziantep FK 2–1 Kasimpasa (9 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Gaziantep FK score 1.2 and concede 2.0 a game, Kasimpasa 2.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.6 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Kasimpasa · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Kasimpasa have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Gaziantep FK — last game: Away to Trabzonspor (0-2) they had 41% of the shots (12 to 17, on target 5-5) and 41% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 45′. 45′–60′: under 73% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 51% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 11% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Kasimpasa — last game: Against Besiktas (2-2) they had 67% of the shots (16 to 8, on target 6-4) and 42% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 15′–30′: under 71% of the pressure → conceded on 28′. 45′–60′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → goal on 60′, conceded on 47′. 75′–90′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 87′. Over the last 4 they averaged 53% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.