Famalicao v Arouca: analysis and our pick
Primeira Liga · Friday 6 November 22:45 · Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Famalicao looking for a response
Famalicao have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Braga and a 2–2 away draw with Braga. Arouca have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Nacional and a 1–0 away win at Alverca.
The head-to-head favours Famalicao
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Famalicao, 3 draws, 0 for Arouca, with 1.2 goals a game. Most recently: Famalicao 0–0 Arouca (22 Jul 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Famalicao score 1.4 and concede 2.0 a game, Arouca 1.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.2 = 2.1 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 64% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Arouca · 43%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 64%: the model expects 2.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Arouca have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Famalicao — last game: Away to Braga (0-3) they had 21% of the shots (4 to 15, on target 1-4) and 41% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 70′ for Famalicao (Rodrigo Pinheiro): they played with ten for ~20 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 44% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 100% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 82% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Arouca — last game: Against Nacional (1-0) they had 71% of the shots (12 to 5, on target 5-1) and 62% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 70% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 71% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.