Everton v Coventry: analysis and our pick

Coventry have a chance to respond

Everton have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Newcastle and a 3–1 home win over Newcastle. Coventry have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Sunderland and a 0–1 home defeat to Fulham.

The head-to-head favours Coventry

In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Everton, 0 draws, 1 for Coventry, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Coventry 3–0 Everton (30 Jul 2024).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. Everton score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Coventry 1.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.1 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 71% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Everton · 42%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 71%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 60%. In 1X2: Everton have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Everton — last game: Away to Newcastle (1-0) they had 48% of the shots (16 to 17, on target 5-2) and 48% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Newcastle (Jacob Ramsey): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → goal on 49′. 75′–90′: under 90% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Coventry — last game: Against Sunderland (3-1) they had 41% of the shots (12 to 17, on target 4-2) and 43% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 37′. 60′–75′: under 86% of the pressure → conceded on 67′. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target. They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.