Durango v Leones Negros UDG: analysis and our pick

Durango in good form

Durango have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Monarcas and a 2–3 away defeat at Venados FC. Leones Negros UDG have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Tepatitlán and a 2–0 away win at Mineros de Zacatecas.

The head-to-head favours Leones Negros UDG

In the last 3 meetings: 1 win for Durango, 0 draws, 2 for Leones Negros UDG, with 1.7 goals a game. Most recently: Durango 1–2 Leones Negros UDG (23 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 60%. Durango score 2.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Leones Negros UDG 2.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Durango · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Durango have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Durango — last game: Away to CDS Tampico Madero (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (CDS Tampico Madero). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Leones Negros UDG — last game: Away to Venados FC (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..