Derby v Bolton: analysis and our pick
Championship · Friday 6 November 22:00 · Pride Park Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Derby looking for a response
Derby have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–4 home defeat to Norwich and a 1–4 away defeat at Millwall. Bolton have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Charlton and a 2–3 home defeat to Bristol City.
The head-to-head favours Derby
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Derby, 1 draw, 1 for Bolton, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Derby 1–0 Bolton (16 Mar 2024).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Derby score 0.6 and concede 2.8 a game, Bolton 1.4 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.6 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Bolton · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Bolton have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Derby — last game: Against Norwich (0-4) they had 24% of the shots (6 to 19, on target 2-8) and 46% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 4 from 8 on target. 0′–15′: under 90% of the pressure → conceded on 8′. 15′–30′: under 83% of the pressure → conceded on 27′. 30′–45′: under 87% of the pressure → conceded on 44′. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 34% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 16% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Bolton — last game: Away to Charlton (1-0) they had 44% of the shots (11 to 14, on target 3-2) and 43% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.