CS Herediano v Deportivo Saprissa: analysis and our pick

Deportivo Saprissa have a chance to respond

CS Herediano have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Sporting San Jose and a 3–1 home win over CS Cartagines. Deportivo Saprissa have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with LD Alajuelense and a 2–1 home win over Firpo.

The head-to-head favours Deportivo Saprissa

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for CS Herediano, 0 draws, 3 for Deportivo Saprissa, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Deportivo Saprissa 2–0 CS Herediano (20 Sept 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. CS Herediano score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game, Deportivo Saprissa 0.6 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.2 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 70% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · CS Herediano · 35%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 70%: the model expects 2.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: CS Herediano have the highest probability (35%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

CS Herediano — last game: Against San Carlos (0-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Deportivo Saprissa — last game: Against LD Alajuelense (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..