Cruzeiro v Bahia: analysis and our pick
Serie A · Friday 6 November 02:30 · Estádio Mineirão. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Cruzeiro in good form
Cruzeiro have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Atletico-MG and a 1–0 home win over Remo. Bahia have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Sao Paulo and a 1–1 away draw with Santos.
The head-to-head favours Cruzeiro
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Cruzeiro, 1 draw, 1 for Bahia, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Bahia 1–2 Cruzeiro (10 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. Cruzeiro score 2.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Bahia 1.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.1 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Cruzeiro · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Cruzeiro have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Cruzeiro — last game: Away to Atletico-MG (1-0) they had 50% of the shots (17 to 17, on target 6-2) and 45% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 26% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Bahia — last game: Against Sao Paulo (3-2) they had 48% of the shots (13 to 14, on target 4-6) and 47% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 21% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 16% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.