CD Marathon v Platense FC: analysis and our pick
Liga Nacional · Friday 6 November 03:30 · Estadio Yankel Rosenthal. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Platense FC have a chance to respond
CD Marathon have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at CD Motagua and a 0–0 away draw with Alianza. Platense FC have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Olancho and a 3–4 away defeat at Real Espana.
An even head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for CD Marathon, 3 draws, 1 for Platense FC, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Platense FC 1–1 CD Marathon (9 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. CD Marathon score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game, Platense FC 1.2 and 2.6. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.0 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · CD Marathon · 65%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 2–0.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: CD Marathon have the highest probability (65%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Platense FC — last game: Against Juticalpa (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Juticalpa). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.