Cancún v Piratas: analysis and our pick

Cancún in good form

Cancún have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over CDS Tampico Madero and a 4–0 away win at Tepatitlán. Piratas have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Tapatío and a 5–0 away win at Dorados.

The head-to-head favours Cancún

In the last 1 meetings: 1 win for Cancún, 0 draws, 0 for Piratas, with 1.0 goals a game. Most recently: Piratas 0–1 Cancún (23 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. Cancún score 2.0 and concede 0.6 a game, Piratas 3.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.3 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Cancún · 43%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: Cancún have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Cancún — last game: Away to Mineros de Zacatecas (2-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Piratas — last game: Away to Tlaxcala (2-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Piratas). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.