Canberra FC v Sydney United: analysis and our pick

Canberra FC looking for a response

Canberra FC have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to South Melbourne and a 0–2 home defeat to Sutherland Sharks. Sydney United have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Sutherland Sharks and a 1–1 away draw with South Melbourne.

An even head-to-head

In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Canberra FC, 1 draw, 0 for Sydney United, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Sydney United 1–1 Canberra FC (18 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Canberra FC score 0.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Sydney United 2.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.6 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 75% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Sydney United · 50%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 75%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Sydney United have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Canberra FC — last game: Away to Sydney United (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Sydney United — last game: Against Canberra FC (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..