Botafogo SP v Londrina: analysis and our pick

Botafogo SP in good form

Botafogo SP have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Sport Recife and a 2–0 away win at Avai. Londrina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to America Mineiro and a 1–2 away defeat at CRB.

The head-to-head favours Botafogo SP

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Botafogo SP, 2 draws, 1 for Londrina, with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: Londrina 0–0 Botafogo SP (18 Jul 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 55%. Botafogo SP score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game, Londrina 1.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.1 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 74% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Botafogo SP · 46%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 74%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Botafogo SP have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Botafogo SP — last game: Against Sport Recife (1-1) they had 62% of the shots (18 to 11, on target 1-4) and 54% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 39′, conceded on 45′. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 10% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Londrina — last game: Against America Mineiro (1-3) they had 70% of the shots (16 to 7, on target 3-5) and 53% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 82% of the pressure → conceded on 21′, 30′. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 34% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4.