Bolívar v Real Potosí: analysis and our pick

Bolívar in good form

Bolívar have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Guabirá and a 2–1 home win over Universitario de Vinto. Real Potosí have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Independiente Petrolero and a 1–2 away defeat at San Antonio Bulo Bulo.

The head-to-head favours Bolívar

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Bolívar, 0 draws, 1 for Real Potosí, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Real Potosí 3–1 Bolívar (22 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Bolívar score 1.4 and concede 1.0 a game, Real Potosí 1.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.1 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Bolívar · 50%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Bolívar have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bolívar — last game: Away to Guabirá (2-1) they had 54% of the shots (19 to 16, on target 6-5) and 55% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 53% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 3). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 5% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Real Potosí — last game: Against Independiente Petrolero (1-1) they had 73% of the shots (24 to 9, on target 8-4) and 63% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 84′ for Independiente Petrolero (Richard Torrico): the opponent played with ten for ~6 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 63% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 19% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 19% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 4 for opponents.