Betlemi v Gonio: analysis and our pick

Betlemi looking for a response

Betlemi have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–10 away defeat at FC Iberia 1999 II and a 0–3 home defeat to Lokomotivi Tbilisi. Gonio have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Merani Tbilisi and a 1–0 away win at Didube 2014.

An even head-to-head

In the last 4 meetings: 2 wins for Betlemi, 0 draws, 2 for Gonio, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Gonio 3–0 Betlemi (21 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 35%. Betlemi score 1.0 and concede 4.6 a game, Gonio 1.2 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 2.0 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Gonio · 62%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 0–2.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Gonio have the highest probability (62%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 0–2 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Betlemi — last game: Away to FC Iberia 1999 II (1-10) they had 12% of the shots (3 to 23, on target 2-14) and 18% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 10 from 14 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 3′. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 21% of the shots and 11% of the shots on target. They turn 167% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 80% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Gonio — last game: Against Merani Tbilisi (3-0) they had 80% of the shots (16 to 4, on target 4-0) and 60% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, faced no shots on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 58′. 75′–90′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 78′, 82′. Over the last 4 they averaged 58% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.