Atlético Choloma v Atletico Independiente: analysis and our pick

Atlético Choloma in good form

Atlético Choloma have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to CD Olimpia and a 3–1 home win over Génesis. Atletico Independiente have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Estrella Roja and a 2–2 home draw with CD Marathon.

The head-to-head favours Atletico Independiente

In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Atlético Choloma, 0 draws, 1 for Atletico Independiente, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Atletico Independiente 2–1 Atlético Choloma (10 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Atlético Choloma score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Atletico Independiente 0.8 and 2.8. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 0.9 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 76% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Atlético Choloma · 56%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 76%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Atlético Choloma have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Atlético Choloma — last game: Against Génesis (3-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 Red card on 82′ for Génesis (C. Guillen): the opponent played with ten for ~8 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Atletico Independiente — last game: Away to Olancho (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..