Adelaide United W v Wellington Phoenix W: analysis and our pick
A-League Women · Friday 6 November 10:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Adelaide United W looking for a response
Adelaide United W have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Central Coast Mariners W and a 0–0 home draw with Perth Glory FC W. Wellington Phoenix W have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Perth Glory FC W and a 1–1 home draw with Melbourne Victory W.
The head-to-head favours Wellington Phoenix W
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Adelaide United W, 0 draws, 3 for Wellington Phoenix W, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Adelaide United W 0–2 Wellington Phoenix W (3 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Adelaide United W score 0.4 and concede 1.8 a game, Wellington Phoenix W 0.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.3 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 74% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Wellington Phoenix W · 37%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 74%: the model expects 2.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Wellington Phoenix W have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.