Universitatea Craiova v Egnatia Rrogozhinë: analysis and our pick

Universitatea Craiova in good form

Universitatea Craiova have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over FC Botosani and a 1–1 away draw with FC Voluntari. Egnatia Rrogozhinë have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Tirana and a 1–0 home win over Teuta Durrës.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Universitatea Craiova score 2.6 and concede 0.6 a game, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.1 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 79% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Universitatea Craiova · 53%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 79%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Universitatea Craiova have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Universitatea Craiova — last game: Against FC Botosani (2-1) they had 62% of the shots (8 to 5, on target 2-2) and 55% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 31′–45′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 73% of the shots and 74% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Egnatia Rrogozhinë — last game: Away to Aarhus (1-1) they had 58% of the shots (11 to 8, on target 7-2) and 66% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 3′ for Aarhus (E. Kahl): the opponent played with ten for ~87 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 1 they averaged 58% of the shots and 78% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 1). They turn 14% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Egnatia Rrogozhinë) 6.00 → 6.50 (+8.3%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.62 → 2.75 (+5%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.33 → 4.50 (+3.9%, drifting) · 1 (Universitatea Craiova) 1.50 → 1.45 (-3.3%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.