Union La Calera v Coquimbo Unido: analysis and our pick

Coquimbo Unido have a chance to respond

Union La Calera have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Coquimbo Unido and a 3–1 home win over U. Catolica. Coquimbo Unido have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Union La Calera and a 1–2 away defeat at Nublense.

The head-to-head favours Coquimbo Unido

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Union La Calera, 0 draws, 4 for Coquimbo Unido, with 1.6 goals a game. Most recently: Coquimbo Unido 1–0 Union La Calera (31 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 65%. Union La Calera score 1.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Coquimbo Unido 2.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.3 = 2.5 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 72% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Coquimbo Unido · 38%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 72%: the model expects 2.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 65%. In 1X2: Coquimbo Unido have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Union La Calera — last game: Away to Coquimbo Unido (0-1) they had 55% of the shots (12 to 10, on target 3-5) and 59% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 🟥 Red card on 22′ for Coquimbo Unido (Sebastián Cabrera): the opponent played with ten for ~68 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents. Coquimbo Unido — last game: Against Union La Calera (1-0) they had 45% of the shots (10 to 12, on target 5-3) and 41% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 22′ for Coquimbo Unido (Sebastián Cabrera): they played with ten for ~68 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 3 they averaged 43% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target. They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.00 → 1.91 (-4.5%, backed) · Both teams score 1.73 → 1.80 (+4%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.80 → 1.75 (-2.8%, backed) · Over 2.5 2.00 → 2.05 (+2.5%, drifting).