Trabzonspor v Freiburg: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · tomorrow 19:45 · Papara Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Trabzonspor in good form
Trabzonspor have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Gaziantep FK and a 4–3 away win at Rizespor. Freiburg have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at FC Augsburg and a 3–2 home win over VfL Wolfsburg.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 50%. Trabzonspor score 2.8 and concede 1.0 a game, Freiburg 1.4 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.2 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Trabzonspor · 54%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Trabzonspor have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Trabzonspor — last game: Against Gaziantep FK (2-0) they had 59% of the shots (17 to 12, on target 5-5) and 59% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 45′. 45′–60′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: under 70% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Freiburg — last game: Away to FC Augsburg (2-1) they had 42% of the shots (10 to 14, on target 2-5) and 45% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 54% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Trabzonspor) 2.45 → 2.40 (-2%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.