Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 22:00 · Stadium of Light. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Dinamo Zagreb have a chance to respond
Sunderland have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Coventry and a 3–2 home win over Brentford. Dinamo Zagreb have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Rudes and a 2–1 home win over HNK Rijeka.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Sunderland score 1.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Dinamo Zagreb 2.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.3 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 74% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Dinamo Zagreb · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 74%: the model expects 2.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Dinamo Zagreb have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Sunderland — last game: Away to Coventry (1-3) they had 59% of the shots (17 to 12, on target 2-4) and 57% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 4 on target. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 37′. 60′–75′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → goal on 67′. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Dinamo Zagreb — last game: Away to Rudes (0-1) they had 67% of the shots (26 to 13, on target 3-4) and 78% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 72′ for Dinamo Zagreb (Iker Almena Horcajo): they played with ten for ~18 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.30 → 2.20 (-4.3%, backed) · 2 (Dinamo Zagreb) 6.00 → 6.25 (+4.2%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.62 → 1.67 (+3.1%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.