St. Truiden v Brann: analysis and our pick

St. Truiden in good form

St. Truiden have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to OH Leuven and a 2–3 away defeat at Club Brugge KV. Brann have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Molde and a 2–0 away win at Grorud.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. St. Truiden score 2.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Brann 2.4 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.6 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · St. Truiden · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: St. Truiden have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

St. Truiden — last game: Against OH Leuven (1-2) they had 52% of the shots (22 to 20, on target 7-3) and 61% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 94% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 46′, conceded on 53′. 60′–75′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 53% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Brann — last game: Against Molde (3-2) they had 46% of the shots (13 to 15, on target 5-4) and 33% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 1′. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 23′. 30′–45′: under 90% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 50% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.