Sportivo Ameliano v Club Guarani: analysis and our pick
Division Profesional - Clausura · tomorrow 00:00 · Estadio Jose Tomas Silva. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Sportivo Ameliano looking for a response
Sportivo Ameliano have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Deportivo Recoleta and a 2–3 home defeat to Olimpia. Club Guarani have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over 2 de Mayo and a 2–0 away win at Rubio NU.
The head-to-head favours Club Guarani
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Sportivo Ameliano, 3 draws, 2 for Club Guarani, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Club Guarani 1–1 Sportivo Ameliano (31 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 35%, both teams scored 50%. Sportivo Ameliano score 1.0 and concede 2.2 a game, Club Guarani 1.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.3 = 2.2 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 66% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Club Guarani · 46%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 66%: the model expects 2.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Club Guarani have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Sportivo Ameliano — last game: Away to Deportivo Recoleta (0-3) they had 48% of the shots (15 to 16, on target 6-8) and 58% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 21% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents. Club Guarani — last game: Against 2 de Mayo (1-0) they had 58% of the shots (14 to 10, on target 4-2) and 53% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.00 → 3.25 (+8.3%, drifting) · 1 (Sportivo Ameliano) 2.70 → 2.88 (+6.7%, drifting) · 2 (Club Guarani) 2.35 → 2.25 (-4.3%, backed) · Over 2.5 2.15 → 2.10 (-2.3%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.