Sparta Prague v Bournemouth: analysis and our pick

Bournemouth have a chance to respond

Sparta Prague have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Bohemians 1905 and a 0–2 home defeat to Banik Ostrava. Bournemouth have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Leeds and a 3–0 home win over Aston Villa.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 35%. Sparta Prague score 1.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Bournemouth 2.6 and 0.0. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.7 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Bournemouth · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Bournemouth have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Sparta Prague — last game: Away to Bohemians 1905 (0-0) they had 74% of the shots (14 to 5, on target 6-0) and 65% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 0, faced no shots on target. 🟥 Red card on 74′ for Bohemians 1905 (Petr Mirvald): the opponent played with ten for ~16 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 57% of the shots and 68% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 18% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Bournemouth — last game: Against Leeds (2-0) they had 52% of the shots (11 to 10, on target 5-1) and 44% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 64% of the shots and 73% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 0% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.