SK Sturm Graz v Celje: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 22:00 · Stadion Graz-Liebenau. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Celje have a chance to respond
SK Sturm Graz have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Wolfsberger AC and a 2–3 away defeat at Austria Lustenau. Celje have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Nafta and a 1–1 away draw with Olimpija Ljubljana.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 40%. SK Sturm Graz score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Celje 1.8 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.1 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 72% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · SK Sturm Graz · 44%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 72%: the model expects 2.5 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: SK Sturm Graz have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
SK Sturm Graz — last game: Away to Wolfsberger AC (1-1) they had 56% of the shots (14 to 11, on target 3-4) and 66% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 45′. 45′–60′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 63% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Celje — last game: Away to Korotan Prevalje (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 38% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target. They turn 133% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.