Riga v FK Jablonec: analysis and our pick

FK Jablonec have a chance to respond

Riga have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Ogre United and a 5–2 away win at Grobiņa. FK Jablonec have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–5 home defeat to Slavia Praha and a 2–1 away win at Hradec Králové.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 50%. Riga score 1.8 and concede 1.0 a game, FK Jablonec 1.2 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.1 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Riga · 53%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Riga have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Riga — last game: Away to Ogre United (0-0) they had 71% of the shots (24 to 10, on target 6-2) and 73% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 86′ for Ogre United (aleksejs kudelkins): the opponent played with ten for ~4 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 94% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 67% of the shots and 71% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. FK Jablonec — last game: Against Slavia Praha (0-5) they had 41% of the shots (11 to 16, on target 1-9) and 44% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 5 from 9 on target. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 41′. 45′–61′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 57′. 61′–75′: under 85% of the pressure → conceded on 66′, 75′. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3.