Real Sociedad v Lyon: analysis and our pick

Real Sociedad in good form

Real Sociedad have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Athletic Club and a 2–1 home win over Levante. Lyon have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Angers and a 0–2 away defeat at Paris Saint Germain.

The head-to-head favours Real Sociedad

In the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Real Sociedad, 0 draws, 0 for Lyon, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Real Sociedad 2–0 Lyon (28 Aug 2013).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 60%. Real Sociedad score 3.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Lyon 1.4 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.3 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Real Sociedad · 52%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Real Sociedad have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Real Sociedad — last game: Away to Athletic Club (1-2) they had 50% of the shots (13 to 13, on target 4-3) and 62% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 60% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Lyon — last game: Against Angers (2-0) they had 71% of the shots (20 to 8, on target 5-2) and 65% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: pressed with 87% of the pressure → goal on 86′. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Lyon) 4.10 → 4.20 (+2.4%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.91 → 1.95 (+2.1%, drifting) · 1 (Real Sociedad) 1.83 → 1.80 (-1.6%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.