Panathinaikos v CSKA Sofia: analysis and our pick

Panathinaikos in good form

Panathinaikos have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over AEK Athens and a 2–1 home win over Aris Thessalonikis. CSKA Sofia have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Slavia Sofia and a 2–0 home win over Ludogorets.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Panathinaikos score 3.0 and concede 0.6 a game, CSKA Sofia 1.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.3 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Panathinaikos · 49%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Panathinaikos have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Panathinaikos — last game: Against AEK Athens (2-0) they had 52% of the shots (16 to 15, on target 3-2) and 40% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 70′ for Panathinaikos (Kings Kangwa): they played with ten for ~20 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 1′. 30′–45′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → goal on 49′. Over the last 4 they averaged 68% of the shots and 82% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 57% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Red cards: 1 theirs. CSKA Sofia — last game: Against Slavia Sofia (0-0) they had 84% of the shots (38 to 7, on target 12-4) and 71% possession. From 12 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 90% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 66% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (CSKA Sofia) 5.75 → 6.50 (+13%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.38 → 2.62 (+10.1%, drifting) · 1 (Panathinaikos) 1.53 → 1.45 (-5.2%, backed) · Not both to score 2.00 → 1.91 (-4.5%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.