NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia: analysis and our pick

Omonia Nicosia have a chance to respond

NEC Nijmegen have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Heerenveen and a 2–2 home draw with Groningen. Omonia Nicosia have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over AEL and a 0–2 away defeat at AEK Larnaca.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. NEC Nijmegen score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game, Omonia Nicosia 1.6 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.8 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Omonia Nicosia · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Omonia Nicosia have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

NEC Nijmegen — last game: Away to Heerenveen (0-1) they had 72% of the shots (21 to 8, on target 2-2) and 62% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 68% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Omonia Nicosia — last game: Against AEL (2-0) they had 42% of the shots (13 to 18, on target 5-8) and 55% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 8 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 15′. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 45% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.