Nacional Potosí v Oriente Petrolero: analysis and our pick

Oriente Petrolero have a chance to respond

Nacional Potosí have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Real Oruro and a 3–0 home win over Guabirá. Oriente Petrolero have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Aurora and a 2–1 home win over The Strongest.

The head-to-head favours Oriente Petrolero

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Nacional Potosí, 2 draws, 2 for Oriente Petrolero, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Oriente Petrolero 3–2 Nacional Potosí (22 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 60%. Nacional Potosí score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Oriente Petrolero 1.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.4 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Nacional Potosí · 45%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Nacional Potosí have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Nacional Potosí — last game: Away to Real Oruro (1-1) they had 33% of the shots (10 to 20, on target 4-8) and 57% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 8 on target. 🟥 Red card on 87′ for Nacional Potosí (C. Abastoflor): they played with ten for ~3 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 51% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 19% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Oriente Petrolero — last game: Against Aurora (1-1) they had 71% of the shots (15 to 6, on target 4-2) and 68% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 74′ for Aurora (Erwin Junior Sanchez): the opponent played with ten for ~16 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 35′. 60′–75′: under 70% of the pressure → conceded on 67′. Over the last 4 they averaged 55% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 3 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Oriente Petrolero) 5.00 → 6.50 (+30%, drifting) · 1 (Nacional Potosí) 1.45 → 1.33 (-8.3%, backed) · X (draw) 4.50 → 4.75 (+5.6%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.10 → 2.00 (-4.8%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.