Monaco v FC Nordsjaelland: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · tomorrow 22:00 · Stade Louis II. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
FC Nordsjaelland have a chance to respond
Monaco have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Paris FC and a 1–1 home draw with Lille. FC Nordsjaelland have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–3 home defeat to Midtjylland and a 1–0 away win at Esbjerg.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 65%. Monaco score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, FC Nordsjaelland 1.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.3 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 84% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Monaco · 50%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 84%: the model expects 3.2 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Monaco have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Monaco — last game: Away to Paris FC (1-3) they had 33% of the shots (9 to 18, on target 2-10) and 56% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 10 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 79% of the pressure → conceded on 38′, 44′. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. FC Nordsjaelland — last game: Against Midtjylland (2-3) they had 65% of the shots (24 to 13, on target 12-4) and 52% possession. From 12 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → goal on 6′. 15′–30′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 87% of the pressure → goal on 34′. Over the last 4 they averaged 54% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (FC Nordsjaelland) 6.00 → 6.50 (+8.3%, drifting) · Under 1.5 6.00 → 6.50 (+8.3%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.70 → 2.88 (+6.7%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.62 → 2.75 (+5%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.