Lincoln Red Imps FC v HNK Hajduk Split: analysis and our pick

Lincoln Red Imps FC in good form

Lincoln Red Imps FC have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 5–0 away win at Hound Dogs and a 3–0 home win over Lions Gibraltar. HNK Hajduk Split have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 5–0 home win over HNK Gorica and a 2–2 away draw with Istra 1961.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 35%. Lincoln Red Imps FC score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game, HNK Hajduk Split 2.2 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.6 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 85% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Lincoln Red Imps FC · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 85%: the model expects 3.3 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Lincoln Red Imps FC have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Lincoln Red Imps FC — last game: Against FC Twente (1-4) they had 14% of the shots (4 to 25, on target 1-7) and 28% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 7 on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 16% of the shots and 17% of the shots on target. They turn 67% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. HNK Hajduk Split — last game: Against HNK Gorica (5-0) they had 76% of the shots (13 to 4, on target 7-1) and 59% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 22′. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 33′, 38′. 60′–75′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 70′. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 70% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Lincoln Red Imps FC) 8.50 → 8.00 (-5.9%, backed) · 2 (HNK Hajduk Split) 1.36 → 1.38 (+1.5%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.