Lillestrom v Plzen: analysis and our pick

Lillestrom in good form

Lillestrom have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Start and a 2–1 home win over Sogndal. Plzen have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–0 away win at Banik Ostrava and a 6–1 away win at Vysočina Jihlava.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 85%, both teams scored 65%. Lillestrom score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game, Plzen 3.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 2.2 = 3.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 89% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Plzen · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 71%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 89%: the model expects 3.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: Plzen have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 71% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Lillestrom — last game: Away to Start (1-0) they had 65% of the shots (22 to 12, on target 4-1) and 51% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Start (Altin Ujkani): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 50% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Plzen — last game: Away to Banik Ostrava (4-0) they had 58% of the shots (15 to 11, on target 8-1) and 42% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → goal on 48′, 56′, 57′. 60′–75′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 55% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 53% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.