Libertad Asuncion v Cerro Porteno: analysis and our pick

Cerro Porteno have a chance to respond

Libertad Asuncion have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Club Sp. San Lorenzo and a 3–1 home win over Independiente F.b.c.. Cerro Porteno have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Olimpia and a 3–1 away win at Club Sp. San Lorenzo.

The head-to-head favours Cerro Porteno

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Libertad Asuncion, 3 draws, 2 for Cerro Porteno, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Cerro Porteno 1–1 Libertad Asuncion (30 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 60%. Libertad Asuncion score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Cerro Porteno 2.0 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.4 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Libertad Asuncion · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Libertad Asuncion have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Libertad Asuncion — last game: Away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo (1-2) they had 48% of the shots (16 to 17, on target 5-7) and 56% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 7 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 48% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 21% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Cerro Porteno — last game: Against Olimpia (0-2) they had 67% of the shots (22 to 11, on target 6-6) and 70% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 13′. 15′–30′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 57% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.50 → 3.75 (+7.1%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting) · Over 3.5 3.40 → 3.25 (-4.4%, backed) · Both teams score 1.73 → 1.67 (-3.5%, backed).