Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia: analysis and our pick

Levski Sofia in good form

Levski Sofia have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Dunav Ruse and a 1–1 away draw with Arda Kardzhali. Jagiellonia have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Wieczysta Kraków and a 6–0 away win at Lechia Gdansk.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. Levski Sofia score 1.4 and concede 0.6 a game, Jagiellonia 2.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Levski Sofia · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 70%. In 1X2: Levski Sofia have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Levski Sofia — last game: Away to Dunav Ruse (1-0) they had 79% of the shots (23 to 6, on target 6-1) and 77% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 90% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 52% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. Jagiellonia — last game: Away to Wieczysta Kraków (3-1) they had 48% of the shots (20 to 22, on target 9-8) and 44% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 8 on target. 0′–16′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 8′. 30′–45′: under 73% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 72′. Over the last 4 they averaged 53% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.