KuPS v Gent: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · tomorrow 19:45 · Tammelan Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Gent have a chance to respond
KuPS have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at AC Oulu and a 1–1 home draw with Gnistan. Gent have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Lommel United and a 4–0 home win over Anderlecht.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 30%, both teams scored 30%. KuPS score 1.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Gent 1.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.5 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 75% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Gent · 43%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 75%: the model expects 2.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: Gent have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
KuPS — last game: Away to AC Oulu (0-2) they had 63% of the shots (19 to 11, on target 5-4) and 63% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 0′–16′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 9′. 16′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 18% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Gent — last game: Away to Lommel United (0-2) they had 47% of the shots (14 to 16, on target 4-7) and 41% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 7 on target. 15′–31′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 81% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 50% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: X (draw) 4.00 → 3.90 (-2.5%, backed) · Double chance 12 1.22 → 1.25 (+2.5%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.