Hapoel Beer Sheva v OFI: analysis and our pick

Hapoel Beer Sheva in good form

Hapoel Beer Sheva have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 5–2 away win at Maccabi Petah Tikva and a 5–2 away win at Maccabi Haifa. OFI have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Panetolikos and a 0–1 away defeat at Larisa.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Hapoel Beer Sheva score 2.6 and concede 2.2 a game, OFI 1.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.4 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 78% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · OFI · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 52%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 78%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 75%. In 1X2: OFI have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 52% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Hapoel Beer Sheva — last game: Away to Maccabi Petah Tikva (5-2) they had 50% of the shots (12 to 12, on target 7-4) and 63% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 15′–30′: under 67% of the pressure → conceded on 29′. 45′–60′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → goal on 65′, 71′. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 52% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. OFI — last game: Away to Panetolikos (1-0) they had 48% of the shots (12 to 13, on target 2-3) and 63% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 69′ for Panetolikos (Athanasios Prodromitis): the opponent played with ten for ~21 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 31% of the shots and 29% of the shots on target. They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.