Getafe v Brighton: analysis and our pick

Brighton have a chance to respond

Getafe have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Sevilla and a 3–2 away win at Lebrijana. Brighton have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Manchester City and a 2–2 away draw with Manchester City.

The head-to-head favours Getafe

In the last 1 meetings: 1 win for Getafe, 0 draws, 0 for Brighton, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Brighton 0–2 Getafe (7 Aug 2021).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Getafe score 1.8 and concede 2.6 a game, Brighton 1.6 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.7 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Brighton · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: Brighton have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Getafe — last game: Against Sevilla (3-1) they had 50% of the shots (11 to 11, on target 5-4) and 47% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Sevilla (Manuel Bueno Sebastián): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 19′. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → goal on 68′, 73′. Over the last 4 they averaged 50% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 61% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents. Brighton — last game: Away to Manchester City (1-0) they had 26% of the shots (7 to 20, on target 3-5) and 38% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → goal on 11′. 15′–30′: under 89% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance 1X 2.20 → 2.30 (+4.5%, drifting) · Double chance 12 1.28 → 1.25 (-2.3%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.14 → 1.12 (-1.8%, backed).