FK Crvena Zvezda v Inter Club d'Escaldes: analysis and our pick

FK Crvena Zvezda in good form

FK Crvena Zvezda have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at Macva and a 5–1 away win at Jedinstvo Ub. Inter Club d'Escaldes have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Penya Encarnada and a 1–1 away draw with FC Santa Coloma.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 45%. FK Crvena Zvezda score 3.4 and concede 1.2 a game, Inter Club d'Escaldes 1.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.4 + 1.2 = 3.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 89% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · FK Crvena Zvezda · 64%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 70%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 89%: the model expects 3.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: FK Crvena Zvezda have the highest probability (64%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 70% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

FK Crvena Zvezda — last game: Away to Macva (4-2) they had 68% of the shots (19 to 9, on target 10-3) and 63% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 16′, 29′. 45′–60′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 55′. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 71% of the shots and 78% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 56% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Inter Club d'Escaldes — last game: Away to FC Santa Coloma (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 37% of the shots and 30% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Both teams score 2.75 → 2.62 (-4.7%, backed) · Under 2.5 3.50 → 3.40 (-2.9%, backed) · Not both to score 1.40 → 1.44 (+2.9%, drifting).