FC Thun v Hearts: analysis and our pick

FC Thun looking for a response

FC Thun have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 5–4 away win at Lausanne and a 2–3 home defeat to FC Lugano. Hearts have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Hibernian and a 2–2 home draw with Rangers.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. FC Thun score 1.8 and concede 2.2 a game, Hearts 1.2 and 2.6. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.7 = 3.6 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 89% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · FC Thun · 43%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 70%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 89%: the model expects 3.6 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: FC Thun have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 70% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

FC Thun — last game: Away to Lausanne (5-4) they had 57% of the shots (16 to 12, on target 8-5) and 58% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 4 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 58% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Hearts — last game: Against Rangers (2-2) they had 57% of the shots (17 to 13, on target 6-5) and 47% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 48′, 57′. 60′–75′: under 91% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 51% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 1.57 → 1.67 (+6.4%, drifting) · 1 (FC Thun) 2.30 → 2.20 (-4.3%, backed) · 2 (Hearts) 2.90 → 3.00 (+3.4%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.50 → 3.60 (+2.9%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.