FC Copenhagen v FC Iberia 1999: analysis and our pick

FC Iberia 1999 have a chance to respond

FC Copenhagen have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Sonderjyske and a 3–0 away win at Aarhus Fremad. FC Iberia 1999 have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Dinamo Tbilisi and a 3–2 home win over Torpedo Kutaisi.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. FC Copenhagen score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game, FC Iberia 1999 1.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 0.9 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 77% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · FC Copenhagen · 60%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 51%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 77%: the model expects 2.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: FC Copenhagen have the highest probability (60%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 51% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

FC Copenhagen — last game: Away to Sonderjyske (2-0) they had 76% of the shots (13 to 4, on target 4-1) and 66% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 20′. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 40′. 45′–60′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 71% of the shots and 68% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. FC Iberia 1999 — last game: Away to Dinamo Tbilisi (0-0) they had 21% of the shots (3 to 11, on target 0-4) and 44% possession. No shots on target, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: under 89% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 31% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 67% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 4.33 → 5.00 (+15.5%, drifting) · 2 (FC Iberia 1999) 15.00 → 17.00 (+13.3%, drifting) · Both teams score 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting) · X (draw) 6.25 → 6.50 (+4%, drifting).