Crystal Palace v 1899 Hoffenheim: analysis and our pick

Crystal Palace looking for a response

Crystal Palace have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Tottenham and a 1–0 away win at Fulham. 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Werder Bremen and a 1–1 away draw with Holstein Kiel.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 45%. Crystal Palace score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.7 = 3.4 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 87% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · 1899 Hoffenheim · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 87%: the model expects 3.4 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: 1899 Hoffenheim have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Crystal Palace — last game: Away to Tottenham (0-2) they had 6% of the shots (2 to 34, on target 1-9) and 21% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 9 on target. 🟥 Red card on 13′ for Crystal Palace (Jean-Philippe Mateta): they played with ten for ~77 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 25′. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 30% of the shots and 32% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. 1899 Hoffenheim — last game: Away to Werder Bremen (0-2) they had 47% of the shots (16 to 18, on target 2-4) and 59% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 71% of the pressure → conceded on 57′. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.