Celtic v Besiktas: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 22:00 · Celtic Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Besiktas have a chance to respond
Celtic have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Falkirk and a 2–2 home draw with Dundee Utd. Besiktas have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Kasimpasa and a 2–0 home win over Istanbul Basaksehir.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 65%. Celtic score 2.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Besiktas 1.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 2.1 = 3.8 goals.
Our pick
Over 1.5 · 90% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Besiktas · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Over 1.5 at 90%: the model expects 3.8 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 95%. In 1X2: Besiktas have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Celtic — last game: Away to Falkirk (0-2) they had 80% of the shots (24 to 6, on target 9-2) and 70% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 38′. 45′–60′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 93% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 65% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Besiktas — last game: Away to Kasimpasa (2-2) they had 33% of the shots (8 to 16, on target 4-6) and 58% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → goal on 28′. 45′–60′: under 71% of the pressure → conceded on 60′, scored on the break on 47′. 75′–90′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 87′. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.38 → 2.50 (+5%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.57 → 1.53 (-2.5%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.