Celta Vigo v Union St. Gilloise: analysis and our pick

Union St. Gilloise have a chance to respond

Celta Vigo have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Rayo Vallecano and a 0–0 home draw with Real Betis. Union St. Gilloise have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at SK Beveren and a 5–2 home win over Cercle Brugge.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 50%. Celta Vigo score 1.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Union St. Gilloise 3.0 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 2.0 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 82% (two goals or more). 1X2: Away win (2) · Union St. Gilloise · 58%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 82%: the model expects 3.0 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Union St. Gilloise have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Celta Vigo — last game: Away to Rayo Vallecano (0-3) they had 44% of the shots (11 to 14, on target 0-8) and 48% possession. No shots on target, conceded 3 from 8 on target. 15′–30′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 36′. 45′–60′: under 67% of the pressure → conceded on 55′. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Union St. Gilloise — last game: Away to SK Beveren (2-1) they had 50% of the shots (10 to 10, on target 4-4) and 46% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 53′ for Union St. Gilloise (Dylan Aquino): they played with ten for ~37 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 4 they averaged 75% of the shots and 76% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 34% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Union St. Gilloise) 3.10 → 3.00 (-3.2%, backed) · Both teams score 1.57 → 1.62 (+3.2%, drifting) · 1 (Celta Vigo) 2.20 → 2.25 (+2.3%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.25 → 2.20 (-2.2%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.