Benfica v Lech Poznan: analysis and our pick

Benfica in good form

Benfica have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Alverca and a 4–1 home win over Gil Vicente. Lech Poznan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Wisla Krakow and a 0–1 away defeat at Siarka Tarnobrzeg.

The head-to-head favours Benfica

In the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Benfica, 0 draws, 0 for Lech Poznan, with 5.0 goals a game. Most recently: Benfica 4–0 Lech Poznan (3 Dec 2020).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 65%. Benfica score 3.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Lech Poznan 2.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 2.6 + 1.1 = 3.7 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 89% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Benfica · 69%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 72%). Most likely score: 2–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 89%: the model expects 3.7 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 90%. In 1X2: Benfica have the highest probability (69%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 72% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Benfica — last game: Against Alverca (1-0) they had 62% of the shots (13 to 8, on target 4-4) and 65% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 82% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 4 they averaged 65% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 14% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Lech Poznan — last game: Against Wisla Krakow (3-1) they had 53% of the shots (18 to 16, on target 7-3) and 52% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 78% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 4 they averaged 45% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 14% of theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 7.00 → 8.00 (+14.3%, drifting) · Under 2.5 3.40 → 3.50 (+2.9%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.33 → 1.30 (-2.3%, backed) · Over 1.5 1.10 → 1.08 (-1.8%, backed).