Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille: analysis and our pick

Bayer Leverkusen in good form

Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–4 home defeat to VfB Stuttgart and a 5–2 home win over 1. FC Nürnberg. Marseille have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Toulouse and a 4–3 home win over Le Havre.

The head-to-head favours Bayer Leverkusen

In the last 1 meetings: 1 win for Bayer Leverkusen, 0 draws, 0 for Marseille, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Marseille 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen (2 Aug 2023).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 50%. Bayer Leverkusen score 2.2 and concede 2.0 a game, Marseille 2.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 0.9 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 83% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · Bayer Leverkusen · 65%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 60%). Most likely score: 2–0.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 83%: the model expects 3.1 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 85%. In 1X2: Bayer Leverkusen have the highest probability (65%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Bayer Leverkusen — last game: Against VfB Stuttgart (2-4) they had 62% of the shots (24 to 15, on target 8-7) and 64% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 4 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 65% of the shots and 66% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Marseille — last game: Against Toulouse (2-0) they had 48% of the shots (13 to 14, on target 3-7) and 43% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 7 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 1′. 15′–30′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → goal on 25′. 45′–60′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.