AZ Alkmaar v Juventus: analysis and our pick

Juventus have a chance to respond

AZ Alkmaar have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Ajax and a 0–2 home defeat to FC Twente. Juventus have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Napoli and a 0–2 away defeat at Genoa.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 35%. AZ Alkmaar score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game, Juventus 1.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.4 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Over 1.5 · 80% (two goals or more). 1X2: Home win (1) · AZ Alkmaar · 37%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Over 1.5 at 80%: the model expects 2.9 goals and the two teams' recent games went Over 1.5 in 80%. In 1X2: AZ Alkmaar have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

AZ Alkmaar — last game: Away to Ajax (0-1) they had 68% of the shots (19 to 9, on target 5-2) and 52% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Juventus — last game: Against Napoli (2-0) they had 72% of the shots (18 to 7, on target 4-1) and 49% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 🟥 Red card on 75′ for Napoli (Luca Marianucci): the opponent played with ten for ~15 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (AZ Alkmaar) 3.80 → 3.60 (-5.3%, backed) · Not both to score 2.10 → 2.05 (-2.4%, backed) · 2 (Juventus) 1.91 → 1.95 (+2.1%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.67 → 1.70 (+1.8%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.